my answer lies between 2nd and 3rd option. Think they'll win the first one but it will be too close for comfort (ala vs. UOP last year) and then get bounced by either UOP or USU in the semis (we'll probably turn it over a few too many times and miss too many free throws and that'll be our demise in a close one).

If they can get to the semis and surprise one of the above (and maybe shoot better than 50% from the charity stripe), then they may have the confidence to win the whole thing but I'm not betting even my lunch on that happening.